There’s something unsettling about a story that refuses to resolve. The facts are there, in pieces. The official version is written. But it doesn’t quite hold, and what’s out there tells the story, but doesn’t always have anything to say. Context matters, as does the vision and the angle.
That’s where we begin.
Almost Certainly Not is a series of full-length cinematic documentaries, companion essays, and audio companions. All focused on true stories that feel unreal.
Disappearances without explanation. Lives lived twice.
Bizarre culture. Misunderstood history.
The eerie quiet that settles in when the facts no longer stand on their own.
We launched this project with a simple goal:
To tell stories differently.
If you’ve heard them before, we want you to hear them in a way you haven’t.
And if you haven’t heard them, we want to make sure you remember them.
These are not churned-out videos.
We endeavor to make them documentaries — cinematic, purposeful, well-researched, and thoughtfully constructed.
We don’t bait and switch.
We don’t trick you into clicking.
We tell the story we intend to. Without exception.
Our hope is not just to leave you with the how, but the why.
And sometimes, the if.
Who We Are
Almost Certainly Not is:
Written, directed, and edited by Dan Lauer
Narrated by Leyla Lawrence
Co-produced by Dan & Leyla
A two-man band. Except that one of us is a woman.
We won’t say who.
A Good Place to Start
If you’re new to Almost Certainly Not, this is where it all began. On December 1st, 2024, we released our first documentary, months in the making:
Sandra Hughes vanished without a trace in the dense Sierra National Forest in the summer of 2020. Her campsite was found abandoned, her belongings scattered as if she'd left in a hurry. Then came the sightings—fleeting glimpses by hikers who swore Hughes looked disoriented, barefoot, and bruised. Each time, she vanished into the trees before they could reach her. Weeks passed, and hope faded.
We were still finding our footing back then. Still discovering the tone.
We’ve come a long way since in the months between then and now. But we’re still incredibly proud, though some of us (Dan) are horrified at what seems in retrospect to be a complete lack of vision and maturity. However, it is and should be true in this kind of endeavor that if you’re not mortified by your first outing, you’re not doing it right.
No?
In the months since last December, we have grown the YouTube channel from 0 subscribers to over 66,000, more than we ever dared to dream.
But we are still growing, still working as hard as we can. Still obsessively passionate. Still always trying to do better the next time than we did the last.
What to Expect
We only make stories when we have something to say.
There is no release schedule. Only stories that matter.
For now, you can:
We’d love to hear from you. What kinds of stories would you like to see us explore next? We hope you’ll stay with us. From time to time, we’ll share updates on upcoming documentaries, behind-the-scenes ideas that didn’t quite make it, thoughts and opinions from both of us, and the occasional bit of stray flotsam we find worth tossing into the current.
You’ve bought the ticket.
Why not take the ride?
- The Almost Certainly Not Team (Dan & Leyla)